Thailand current water situation

September 27, 2023
Sutiwat Prutthiprasert

Thailand current water situation

[Summary]

  • Comparing to the same period of last year (2022), the rainfall amount of this year is significantly lower.
  • The ONI Index shows that El Nino is likely inevitable. The Thai Meteorological Department declares that Thailand has been affected by El Nino since June and the effect will prolong until March next year.
  • Although the overall picture of Thailand is drought, locally heavy rains are possible.
  • The storage levels in major dams of Chao Phraya River in the Northern Regions are in an increasing trend. However, the storage level in Pasak Dam is in a critical level.
  • The river levels of Ping, Wang, Yom, Nan slightly increased from last month. The river situations in Sukhothai Province should be closely monitored.

Precipitation

Figure 1: Rainfall situation (Source : Thai Meteorological Department)

          Comparing to September last year (2022), the accumulate rainfall amount of this year is substantially lower, especially in the Northern and Central areas as shown in the figures above. The rainfall amount in 2022 (until 18 September) is in the range between 600 to 3000 mm, while it is only 200 to 3000 mm in 2023 (until 18 September). If comparing to the normal rainfall value, the accumulated rainfall amount of this year is -200 mm on average. * Normal value is the average rainfall amount within the period of 30 years (1981-2010)

Forecast

October is the transition month from rainy season to winter, and unstable weather is expected. Total rainfall in Thailand is expected to be about 10 percent below normal, and average temperatures* will be higher, however, the southwest monsoon may cause locally heavy rainfall. * Average temperature is an average temperature throughout the year within a period of 30 years (1981-2010).

Figure 2 : Forecast in October (Source : Thai Meteorological Department)

El/Nino Update

            The El Nino is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures rise above normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from near the date line to the coast of South America and remain so for about one year, significantly affecting the global climate. In Southeast Asia, rainfall is expected to decrease and droughts may occur. According to ONI index shown in the below figure, the index still shows an increasing trend of the sea surface temperature (SST) which is at least higher than 0.5 from April to June. If the SSTs of July and August came out and continue the trend, El Nino would likely to be confirmed. In addition, if comparing the SSTs of this year to 2015 which is one of the driest years of Thailand, the values still seem to be lower. According to the Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand will face El Nino from June until at least March 2024 which will lead to a drought situation. Looking back to 2015, a severe drought caused an extensive effect to Thailand which includes:
  • The lowest recorded yearly rainfall amount since 1981
  • The water storage levels in all large-size dams were in critically low level.
  • Increase in wildfire events which leads to an air pollution problem
  • The water levels in some main rivers are depleted.
  • Crop production decreased significantly and prices of many groceries increased.
  • The irrigation systems capacity in Eastern Bangkok and Pathumthani Province were scarce. Moreover, the industrial water supply in Lampoon Province was disturbed.

Table 1 : ONI index (Source : NOAA)

          IEAT (Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand) has predicted that this year’s El Nino situation would not be severe. FTI (The Federation of Thai Industries) stated that the private sector is closely monitoring the water situation and proposed the government to be prepared for a long-haul drought situation that might last for 2-3 years. If the drought situation was not appropriately managed, the occupancies that would be affected are food and beverages, paper, petrochemical, textile, metals, power plant, and electronics. During the 2015 drought, many factories took measures such as reusing wastewater and purchasing industrial water from private companies. Important thing for companies is to watch the weather. We recommend that you listen to the water level of the location where you want to water intake the industrial water to the industrial park. It is also important to know the support measures of the government and industrial relations institutions do.

Dam Storage Level (Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam)

Figure 3 : Storage level Sirikit Dam (52%, 18 September) (Source : National Hydroinformatics Data Center)

Figure 4 : Storage level Bhumibil Dam (45%, 18 September) (Source : National Hydroinformatics Data Center)

          The storage level of on Bhumibil Dam seems to be turning to an increasing trend. Likewise, Sirikit Dam is also in an increasing trend (from 38 to 52 percent comparing to last month). The storage levels in both dams are still higher than 2015.

Dam Storage Level (Pasak Dam, Kwaenoi Dam)

Figure 5 : Storage level Pasak Dam (10%, 18 September) (Source : National Hydroinformatics Data Center)

Figure 6 : Storage level Kwaenoi Dam (33%, 18 September) (Source : National Hydroinformatics Data Center)

          The storage level in Pasak Dam has overturned from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend due to the rainfall, however; it is still in a critical level which is insufficient to nourish the agricultural activities. Similarly, the storage level in Kwae Noi Dam is also in an increasing trend.

The Upper Chao Phraya River Flow

The overall water levels in Ping, Wang, Yom and Nan Rivers slightly increase comparing to last month in the Northern Region. The water levels in most stations are in an increasing trend. There are notable critical water levels in Sukhothai Province.

Figure 7: Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River, 18 September 2023 (Source: Smart Water Operation Center : SWOC)

Note: – Numbers in bracket indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters. – Water levels U/S and D/S are in meters.

The Lower Chao Phraya River Flow

              The river levels in lower Chao Phraya are close to the last month. The flow rate of the Chao Phraya River below the Chao Phraya Dam has increased from 55 m3/sec in June to 380 m3/sec which illustrates a high amount of water in The Upper Chao Phraya River. However, there is no critical flood situation.

Figure 8: Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River, 18 September 2023 (Source: Smart Water Operation Center : SWOC)

Note: – Numbers in black indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers in bracket the flow rate of water in m3/day. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters.
References http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php https://www.tmd.go.th/forecast/monthly https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/lifestyle/judprakai/1078941 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php https://www.posttoday.com/general-news/699024 https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/business/economic/1082186 http://water.rid.go.th/flood/flood/daily.pdf https://www.thaiwater.net/water/dam/large http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_up18092023.jpg http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_low18092023.jpg

Thailand current water situation

March 20, 2023
Sutiwat Prutthiprasert

Thailand current water situation

[Summary]

  • Comparing to the same period of last year (2022), the rainfall amount of this year is significantly lower especially in the upper country.
  • The weather in March will be mostly hot in overall country and there will be partial rainfall which is the effect from the southwest monsoon wind.
  • All main dams in Chao Phraya River Basin are in the decreasing trend. The storage level in Sirikit Dam is higher than last year (2022) and slightly lower than 2011 but the storage level of Bhumibol Dam is higher than both 2011 and 2022.
  • There are no concerning topics in the main rivers and canals of the Chao Phraya River Basin. The river levels are mostly in low level.

Precipitation

Comparing to 2022, the total rainfall from January 1st until February 28th of this year is significantly lower especially in the upper country. The total rainfall in the upper country is in the range of 50 to 200 mm, whereas in this year, the total rainfall in the upper country is mostly in the range of 5 to 50 mm.

Forecast

In March, the weather in the first half of the month will be hot at times and will be hot in overall country. The highest temperature would reach 40-43 ˚C in many areas especially in the upper country. However, there will be the occasional coverage of the southwest monsoon wind which will result in periodical rainfall. Overall, the average temperature is close to normal value and the rainfall amount is slightly lower than normal value.

Water Management in 2023

Prapit Janma, the Director of the Royal Irrigation Department (RID), had reported that the RID had followed the 13 rainy season water management measures in 2022. There are machinery and equipment support such as water drainage pumps in total of 2,260 units in 58 provinces that had been affected by flood. The water budget in all country after the rainy season (November 1st) is at 64,000 million m3 which 5,495 million m3 greater than in 2021. For this year’s water management for drought season, 43,740 million m3 of water is prepared which 14,074 million m3 is arranged in four main dams for the Chao Phraya River Basin, 9,100 million m3 (62%) is arranged for the drought season and 5,474 million3 (38%) is reserved for the beginning of rainy season.

Dam Storage Level (Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam)

Storage level Sirikit Dam (58%, 28 Feb) Storage level Bhumibol Dam (75%, 28 Feb) Current Sirikit dam storage levels is slightly lower than in the same period of 2011 when the great flood occurred. On the other hand, the storage level of Bhumibol Dam is substantially higher than both 2011 and 2022. Both dams are in the decreasing trends.

Dam Storage Level (Pasak Dam, Kwaenoi Dam)

Storage level Pasak Dam (55%, 28 Feb) Storage level Kwaenoi Dam (60%, 28 Feb) Both Pasak Dam and Kwaenoi Dam are relatively in the same trend as the storage levels are lower than 2022 but higher than 2011. Both dams are also in the deceasing trend.

The Upper Chao Phraya River Flow

The river levels in Ping, Wang, Yom and Nan Rivers are mostly in low level. For example, the water level in Nan River at Nan, Pitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan is 7-8 lower than the river banks. The river level of the Chao Phraya River over the Chao Phraya Dam is approximately the same as last month (January).

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River 28th February 2023

Note: – Numbers in bracket indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters. – Water levels U/S and D/S are in meters.

The Lower Chao Phraya River Flow

The flow rate of the Chao Phraya River below the Chao Phraya Dam is approximately the same as January (70 m3/sec) comparing to the rainy season at higher than 800 m3/sec. There are no concerning situations in the lower Chao Phraya River.

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River 28th February 2023

Note: – Numbers in black indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers in bracket the flow rate of water in m3/day. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters.
References http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php https://www.tmd.go.th/forecast/monthly http://water.rid.go.th/flood/flood/daily.pdf https://www1.rid.go.th/index.php/th/2019-04-26-19-42-45/1473-30-01-2566 https://www3.tmd.go.th/media/forecast-threemonthcountry/newsjfm_2023.pdf https://www.thaiwater.net/water/dam/large http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_up.php?cal2=24022023 http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_low.php?cal2=24022023

No tag assigned

Thailand current water situation

July 25, 2022
Sutiwat Prutthiprasert

Thailand current water situation

[Summary]

  • The rainfall amount from the beginning of July is substantially higher than last year in the south.
  • In the first half of July, the quantity and dispersion of rainfall will still be low.
  • In the second half of July, there will be rain in many areas and will be heavy in some areas due to the strengthening of the southwest monsoon.
  • The storage levels in all major dams of the Chao Phraya Basin are slightly lower than the beginning of June. However, the storage levels are mostly relatively higher than last year.
  • The river levels of both upper and lower Chao Phraya River are close to beginning of June and are in normal to low level. There is no concern about flood.

Precipitation

The precipitation until the beginning of July comparing to last year is substantially higher, especially in the south of country. The accumulated rainfall is in the range of 800-2000 mm in the southern area which is the effect from La Nina. If comparing to the average rainfall value, this year’s accumulated rainfall is significantly higher in the north of country and substantially higher in the south of country.

Note: Normal value is the average rainfall amount within the period of 30 years (1981-2010)

Forecast

According to the monthly weather forecast from the Thai Meteorological Department, the quantity and dispersion of rainfall will still be low in the first half of July, approximately 20-30 percent of the area. Afterwards, the quantity and dispersion of rainfall will gradually increase in the second half of July. There will be rain in many areas and will be heavy rain in some areas, especially in the eastern region and southwestern region. These are the consequence of the weakening of the southwest monsoon that has been covering the Andaman sea and the country in the first half of the month, and then the southwest monsoon will gradually strengthen. In addition, there will be monsoon trough that will periodically lay along the northern regions in the second half of July. For the precipitation forecast in July, most of total rainfall will be approximate to the normal value. Except, the total rainfall of northern region and northeast region will be approximately 10 percent lower the normal value. Caution in July, there will be tropical storms usually formed in the western region of North Pacific Ocean, and moving thru the Philippines into the South China Sea. Thus, the southwest monsoon that has covered the Andaman sea and the country will strengthen, as a result, rain will be increased, especially in southwest region and eastern region coasts. Note: Normal value is the average rainfall amount within the period of 30 years (1981-2010)

Dam Storage Level (Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam)

Storage level Sirikit Dam (37%) 4 July 2022

Storage level Bhumibol Dam (42%) 4 July 2022

The storage level of Sirikit Dam until July 4th is slightly higher than last year although the storage level at the beginning of the year is low. For Bhumibol Dam, the storage level is relatively higher than last year. Despite a higher rainfall, both dams are in decreasing trend which are totally different from 2011.

Dam Storage Level (Pasak Dam, Kwaenoi Dam)

Storage level Pasak Dam (19%) 4 July 2022

Storage level Kwaenoi Dam (29%) 4 July 2022

The storage levels of both Kwaenoi Dam and Pasak Dam comparing to the beginning of the year are substantially lower. However, the storage levels are slightly higher than the last year. The Upper Chao Phraya River Flow The river levels in Ping, Wang, Yom and Nan are close to the beginning of June. The river level of the Chao Phraya River above the Chao Phraya Dam is considerably lower than the bank. Thus, there is no critical situation regarding flood event.

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River

4th July 2022

Note: – Numbers in bracket indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters. – Water levels U/S and D/S are in meters. The Lower Chao Phraya River Flow                The river levels in Lower Chao Phraya are close to the beginning of June. The river level is clearly lower than the river bank. There is no notable situation.

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River

4th July 2022

Note: – Numbers in black indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers in bracket the flow rate of water in m3/day. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters. References
http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php https://www.tmd.go.th/monthly_forecast.php
https://www.thaiwater.net/water/dam/large
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_up.php?cal2=04072022
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_up.php?cal2=03062022
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_low.php?cal2=04072022
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_low.php?cal2=03062022
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. is a MS&AD Insurance Group company specialized in risk management survey research and consulting services. For inquiry about consultation and seminar etc. for companies expanding business in Thailand, please feel free to contact the nearest Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance or Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance sales representatives.
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc.
International Section, Corporate Planning Department
TEL.03-5296-8920
http://www.irric.co.jp
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) is a MS&AD Insurance Group company which was established in Thailand to provide risk management services, such as fire safety, flood risk management, electrical safety and risk consulting services, such as automotive risk assessment, occupational safety and burglary risk survey to our clients in Thailand. For inquiry, please feel free to contact us.
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
175 Sathorn City Tower, South Sathorn Road, Thungmahamek, Sathorn, Bangkok, 10120, Thailand
TEL: +66-(0)-2679-5276
FAX: +66-(0)-2679-5278
http://www.interriskthai.co.th/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The purpose of this report is to provide our customers with the useful information for the occupational safety and health management. There is no intention to criticize any individuals and parties etc.
Copyright 2022 MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. All Rights Reserved

No tag assigned

Importance of seat belt and helmet

July 11, 2022
Chalisa Masuk

Importance of seat belt and helmet

[Summary]

  • Fastening a seat belt can reduce the risk of accident fatalities by 40% for the passengers in the front roll and 70% for the back seat passengers.
  • Helmet-wearing is effective in preventing death by an estimated 43% (for riders) and 58% (for passengers).
  • Fastening a seat belt and wearing a helmet with the right type and right method will help reduce severe injuries and deaths.
  • The car seat of children should be selected and installed appropriately for safety.
  • All persons in a car are required to fasten seat belts / on a motorcycle are required to wear helmets. The infraction can result in a fine of up to 400 – 5,000 THB.

What happens to your body during a road accident?

The impact caused by a car traveling at 60 km/hr. is equal to a car falling from a 14-meter high building or a 5-story building. During the traveling, the passenger’s speed will equal to the car’s speed. If the accident occurs while the passenger does not fasten the seat belt, the head, face, and body will be thrown against the steering wheel and windshield causing unconsciousness or death. In case of an accident without wearing a helmet, the centrifugal force will cause the head to hit the ground or solid object, causing the injury. There is a possibility of bleeding from the head wound. Even though there is no wound, severe concussion can cause brain contusion, hemorrhage in the head or other brain regions, damage to the nerve or vascular system, paralysis, and brain tumor. Advantages of fastening a seat belt and wearing a helmet The seat belt keeps a body in the seat. It is designed to work with the airbag system during a car crash. Airbags are designed to help support the head and chest from the front, along with the seat belt locking the body to the seat. If the passengers do not fasten the seat belt, the cooperation with airbag system will be ineffective. Fastening a seat belt can reduce the risk of accident fatalities by 40% for the front seat passengers and 70% for the back seat passengers. A helmetwearing helps reduce the impact of an accident on the head. Due to the inner lining of the helmet can absorb the shock, the wearing of the full-face helmet which covers the entire face can mostly reduce the impact on the head from the accident. According to the published study of the statistical analysis about crashing, motorcycle helmets reduce the risk of head injuries by 50-70%. Moreover, helmet-wearing is effective in preventing death by an estimated 43% (for riders) and 58%  (for passengers). Fastening a seat belt and wearing a helmet with the right type and right method will help reduce severe injuries and deaths.

How to use a seat belt and a helmet for safety

Fastening a seat belt For general passengers, a safety belt should be fastened tightly through the collarbone and not be flipped over to avoid malfunction. The thin edge of the belt can easily slice into the skin. To avoid neck and under armpit injury, the diagonal strap should rest over the shoulder. Moreover, the horizontal seat belt should be placed over the pelvic region and not across the abdomen to reduce the pressure from the belt during an accident. For pregnant women, a safety belt should be fastened across the cleavage and dropped to the side to avoid belting directly on the abdomen. Using pillows or pads on the lower abdomen to reduce the friction and pressure that may harm the unborn child. Adjusting the seat about 10 inches from the steering wheel will reduce injuries from seat belt jerks in the case of an accident. Children under 140 cm in height or less than 30 kg in weight should not be fastened to a seat belt due to the improper position. A car seat should be provided by attaching to the back seat of the car and straps to tighten the body of the child. There are several types of car seat provided for newborns to 12-year-old children that should be selected and installed appropriately for safety. Wearing a helmet What to know when choosing a helmet is that helmet meets safety standards. TISI Certification is the regular standard in Thailand. For wearing safely, the helmet retention system called the chinstrap should be secured below your chin to keep the helmet on your head while riding. If an accident causes the helmet to break, the helmet should be replaced immediately and not be used again. The helmet’s lifetime is 3 years, thus it should be replaced according to its lifetime. The general types of helmets are as follows;
  • A full-face helmet gives the most protection since it covers the entire head and chin.
  • An open-face helmet is constructed with the same basic components as a full-face helmet but does not include chin protection.
  • A half-shell helmet protects only the head, but it is more likely to come off the head upon impact. Thus, half-shell helmets are not recommended.

Thailand Road Safety Regulations

All passengers in a car are required to fasten seat belts (driver, front-seat passenger, and rear-seat passengers). Even though traveling in a car or taxi, remember to buckle up. An infraction can result in a fine of up to 500 baht per passenger. Moreover, all passengers traveling on buses and in mini-vans must fasten seat belts as well. Passengers not fastening seat belts can be fined up to 5,000 Baht per person. However, the website of the Royal Gazette published the Road Traffic Act (No. 13) B.E. 2022 dated May 7, 2022, which will come into effect in the next four months or on September 5, 2022, said as follows; “Children under 6, or with 135 cm or less in height, must be placed in a booster seat or a child safety seat (car seat), and all passengers must fasten seat belts at all times, or face a fine of up to 2,000 baht on conviction.”

Conclusions

Traffic accidents are frequent in Thailand, causing a particularly high number of injuries and fatalities. Factors contributing to these injuries and fatalities include the negligence to wear seatbelts and helmets. The purpose of both driving cars and riding motorcycles is not only for personal use but also for business trips, it is a risk that companies cannot overlook accordingly. To reduce the risk of traffic accidents and fatalities, it is effective to provide regular safety driving training to employees. We, InterRisk Asia (Thailand) have been providing road safety training with KYT tools for cars and motorcycles. If you are interested, please contact us through our website.

References

https://www.dlt.go.th/site/trang/m-news/6648/view.php?_did=40610 https://www.thairath.co.th/news/local/504188 https://thematter.co/brandedcontent/thaihealth-helmet-03/74440 http://roadsafety.disaster.go.th/ https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/news/1003907 https://ratchakitcha2.soc.go.th/pdfdownload/?id=139A028N0000000000500 https://www.thaipbsworld.com/kids-under-6-in-cars-in-thailand-must-be-secured-in-child-seats-from-september/ https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/child-passenger-safety/index.html http://roadsafety.disaster.go.th/upload/minisite/file_attach/196/5bb5e0e621c38.pdf https://learndriving.tips/learning-to-drive/proper-way-to-wear-seat-belt/

No tag assigned

Thailand current water situation

June 20, 2022
Sutiwat Prutthiprasert

Thailand Current Water Situation

Summary

  • The rainfall amount from the end of May is substantially higher than last year, especially in the south.
  • In the first half of June, there will be heavy rain in many areas, especially eastern and southwest regions.
  • In the second half of June, rain will decrease due to weakening of the southwest monsoon.
  • The storage levels in all major dams of the Chao Phraya Basin are slightly higher than the beginning of May due to arriving of rainy season. And, the storage levels are mostly relatively higher than last year.
  • The river levels of Yom river (upper Chao Phraya River) are clearly higher than the beginning of May. However, the overall river levels of both upper and lower Chao Phraya River are still normal to low. There is no concern about flood. 

Precipitation

The precipitation until the end of May comparing to last year is substantially higher, especially in the south of country. The accumulated rainfall in overall country is in the range of 200-1200 mm which is the effect from La Nina. If comparing to the average rainfall value, this year’s accumulated rainfall is significantly higher, especially in the northern and southern regions.

Forecast

According to the monthly weather forecast from the Thai Meteorological Department change to, the weather will be continually rainy in the first half of June, approximately 40-60 percent of the area, there will be heavy rain on some days in some areas. For the eastern and southwest regions, rain will increase to be approximately 60-80 percent of the area, there will be rain in many areas and be heavy rain in some areas. Afterwards, the quantity and dispersion of rainfall will decrease in the second half of the month. These are the consequence of the transition from weakening of the southwest monsoon that covered the country in the first half of the month. In addition, there will be monsoon trough that will periodically lay along the northern and northeast regions. And, the monsoon trough will lay along the southern region of China in the second half of the month. For the precipitation forecast in June, the total rainfall of upper country will be approximate to the normal value while the total rainfall of southern region will be approximately 10 percent lower the normal value. Caution in June, there will be tropical storms usually formed in the western region of North Pacific Ocean, and moved thru the Philippines into the South China Sea. Thus, the southwest monsoon that has covered the Andaman sea and the country will be stronger, as a result, rain will be increased, especially southwest region and eastern region coasts. Note: Normal value is the average rainfall amount within the period of 30 years (1981-2010)

Dam Storage Level (Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam)

Storage level Sirikit Dam (39%) 29 May 2022

Storage level Bhumibol Dam (45%) 29 May 2022

The storage level of Sirikit Dam until May 29th is slightly higher than last year although the storage level at the beginning of the year is low. For Bhumibol Dam, the storage level is increasing as a consequence of higher rainfall in the northern region and is in the different trend comparing to last year.

Dam Storage Level (Pasak Dam, Kwaenoi Dam

Storage level Pasak Dam (30%) 29 May 2022

Storage level Kwaenoi Dam (38%) 29 May 2022

The storage levels of both Kwaenoi Dam and Pasak Dam comparing to the beginning of the year are substantially lower. However, the storage levels are slightly higher than the last year.  The Upper Chao Phraya River Flow The river level in Yom river is higher from the beginning of May, especially the river level at Phichit province. For, the river levels in Ping, Wang, and Nan river are not significantly changed from the beginning of May. The river level of the Chao Phraya River above the Chao Phraya Dam is also lower than the bank. Thus, there is no critical situation regarding flood event.

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River

29th May 2022

Note: – Numbers in bracket indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters. – Water levels U/S and D/S are in meters. The Lower Chao Phraya River Flow                There is no significant change of river levels in the Lower Chao Phraya. The river level is clearly lower than the river bank. There is no notable situation.

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River

29th May 2022

Note: – Numbers in black indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. – Numbers in bracket the flow rate of water in m3/day. – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters.
References
http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php
https://www.tmd.go.th/monthly_forecast.php
https://www.thaiwater.net/water/dam/large
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_up.php?cal2=29052022
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_low.php?cal2=29052022
https://www.pexels.com/photo/silhouette-of-house-and-trees-by-water-during-golden-hour-1044330/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. is a MS&AD Insurance Group company specialized in risk management survey research and consulting services. For inquiry about consultation and seminar etc. for companies expanding business in Thailand, please feel free to contact the nearest Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance or Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance sales representatives.
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc.
International Section, Corporate Planning Department
TEL.03-5296-8920
http://www.irric.co.jp
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) is a MS&AD Insurance Group company which was established in Thailand to provide risk management services, such as fire safety, flood risk management, electrical safety and risk consulting services, such as automotive risk assessment, occupational safety and burglary risk survey to our clients in Thailand. For inquiry, please feel free to contact us.
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
175 Sathorn City Tower, South Sathorn Road, Thungmahamek, Sathorn, Bangkok, 10120, Thailand
TEL: +66-(0)-2679-5276
FAX: +66-(0)-2679-5278
http://www.interriskthai.co.th/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The purpose of this report is to provide our customers with the useful information for the occupational safety and health management. There is no intention to criticize any individuals and parties etc.
Copyright 2022 MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. All Rights Reserved

No tag assigned

Cybercrime in Thailand

June 6, 2022
Patipon Wongsrikul

Cybercrime in Thailand

[Summary]

  • The users in Thailand were attacked by cybercrimes around 21% in 2021 which is lower than the global average of 29%.
  • The average losses of cybercrime in 2021 rise up to 144%, or $2.2 million or approximately 72.6 million Thai Baht.
  • Subsidiary companies are used as an intermediate for intrusion into the headquarters system.
  • Regular training by specialists for quick communication in case of an accident is required
Cybercrime is a crime that involves a computer and a network to further illegal ends, such as committing fraud, stealing identities, or violating privacy. Computer viruses are one of the cybercrimes; probably the first kind of crime you became aware of. Viruses infect computer systems, destroying files, messing with the overall functionality, and self-replicating to other devices and systems. Viruses are a form of malware, which encompasses all kinds of malicious software, any code or programs written and distributed to damage, steal data, and make money for the virus’s owner. This includes ransomware, which can lock up your files until you pay a ransom to decrypt them. Cybercrime is a problem nowadays because technology is advancing every day. However, security measures to protect this technology and the users of the technology are not advancing as quickly. This allows for cybercrime to occur more often. Cybersecurity Ventures, the world’s leading researcher expects global cybercrime costs to grow by 15 percent per year over the next five years, reaching $10.5 trillion annually by 2025, up from $3 trillion in 2015. This represents the greatest transfer of economic wealth in history, which is exponentially larger than the damage inflicted from natural disasters in a year. So, what are the cybercrime situation in Thailand? Let’s find out the interesting information in this newsletter. In Thailand, the cybercrime incidents are divided into 9 categories as follows;

Table.1  Categories of cybercrime in Thailand

The trend of historical statistics of cybercrime incidents in Thailand since 2018 is decreased but the number of incidents is still high. The average losses of cybercrime in 2021 rise up to 144%, or $2.2 million. or approximately 72.6 million Thai Baht. The most affected industries were legal services, construction, wholesale and retail, healthcare, and industrial estates. Thailand is in 6th ranked in the Asia-Pacific countries and Japan is mostly affected by ransomware. According to the survey questionnaire of cyber companies in many countries, it was found that the users in Thailand were attacked by cybercrimes around 21% in 2021 which is lower than the global average of 29%. In the last 4 years, the numbers of cybercrimes are 2,250 cases (in 2018), 2,470 cases (in 2019), 2,250 cases (in 2020), and 2,069 cases (in 2021) which have no significant changes. However, the incident type of intrusions was decreased while malicious code and other threats (such as information gathering) were increased. The situation of cybercrimes in Thailand in the last 4 years is shown as the following diagram.

Figure.1  Number of cyber attacks in Thailand ( 2018 – 2021 )

Examples of big cybercrimes in Thailand are shown in the below table.

Table.2  Examples of major cybercrimes in Thailand

The principle of cybersecurity measures

Due to the limited resources (people, time, and budget) of the foreign subsidiaries compared with the headquarters, the security level of foreign subsidiaries therefore tends to be lower than the headquarters. The attackers have already known this condition. Thus, the attack of foreign subsidiaries will be an intermediate for intrusion into the headquarters system. There are various types of cyberattacks in the past year, causing the high flexibility to deal with the situation is required. Although the details of the countermeasure have already been known, the proper handle cannot be guaranteed. Since independent coping with the situation after the accident without the support from specialists is difficult, the segregation of responsibilities among foreign subsidiaries, headquarters, and external cybersecurity specialists is obviously important. In this article, regular training is suggested to prepare the countermeasures starting from the anomaly detection to initial responses through concrete simulation situations as the examples below.

From detection to initial response

Supporting the system recovery through the insurance and additional services.

This section mentions cybersecurity insurance. In the event of cyber incidents as shown in the table on page 3, your company’s initial response is very important to mitigate losses. Besides a quick response, an advanced technical countermeasure is also necessary. There are very few foreign subsidiaries with limited resources that can independently cope with cyber incidents without supporting from external organizations. Therefore, regular training and preparation of emergency communications are required for swift communication with cybersecurity specialists in case of an accident. If the insurance on cyber security has been covered on your company already, the insurance company will contact cybercrime specialists and immediately troubleshoot to recover as soon as possible. If the emergency communication with contracted IT companies has been proceeded, problems will be solved faster as well. In addition, there are insurance companies that provide training services such as phishing email training which can increase the efficiency of cybercrime response. The example of training is shown in the below figure.

Figure.2  Example of Targeted email attack training

The cyber risks such as the enormous financial burden caused by ransomware damage are increasing and more complicated every year. Besides direct damage from cybercrimes, the number of consequential damages and minor incidents is also increasing. Such situations do not affect only your company, it also affects business partners, customers, and shareholders. In some cases, it may affect the market and society as well. Therefore, please be informed that the situation can be resolved with urgency and advanced technical response even in a limited resource condition if insurance services are utilized effectively. The benefits of using insurance services are as follows:
  1. Encouragement of cyber-attack training and provision of training equipment about phishing email training for employees etc.
  2. Support of emergency measures and system restoration with coordinated specialists in case of cyber incidents.
  3. Reimbursement of recovery cost of post-cyber-attacks, losses incurred with stakeholders (such as business partners, etc.), expenses incurred in emergency measures, compensation cost for victims in case of the personal data leak, and compensation cost for business partners in case of confidential information leak, etc.

References Source of image __________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. is a MS&AD Insurance Group company specialized in risk management survey research and consulting services. For inquiry about consultation and seminar etc. for companies expanding business in Thailand, please feel free to contact the nearest Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance or Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance sales representatives.
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc.
International Section, Corporate Planning Department
TEL.03-5296-8920
http://www.irric.co.jp
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) is a MS&AD Insurance Group company which was established in Thailand to provide risk management services, such as fire safety, flood risk management, electrical safety and risk consulting services, such as automotive risk assessment, occupational safety and burglary risk survey to our clients in Thailand. For inquiry, please feel free to contact us.
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
175 Sathorn City Tower, South Sathorn Road, Thungmahamek, Sathorn, Bangkok, 10120, Thailand
TEL: +66-(0)-2679-5276
FAX: +66-(0)-2679-5278
http://www.interriskthai.co.th/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The purpose of this report is to provide our customers with the useful information for the occupational safety and health management. There is no intention to criticize any individuals and parties etc.
Copyright 2022 MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. All Rights Reserved

No tag assigned

Thailand current water situation

May 23, 2022
Sutiwat Prutthiprasert

Thailand Current Water Situation

[video width="3840" height="2160" mp4="http://www.interriskthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/pexels-rostislav-uzunov-7385122.mp4" loop="true" autoplay="true" preload="auto"][/video]

Summary

  • The rainy season is expected to arrive in the mid of May.
  • The rainfall amount from the beginning of this year is close to last year except in the south.
  • The effect from La Nina mitigated the drought situation and will cause higher precipitation in the first half of the rainy season. However, the precipitation will decrease after June as the turnover from La Nina to El Nino.
  • The storage level in all major dams of the Chao Phraya Basin are in a decreasing trend due to the drought season. However, the storage levels are mostly relatively higher than last year.
  • There are no concerning topics in the main rivers of the Chao Phraya Basin. The river levels are mostly in low level.

Precipitation

The precipitation until the beginning of May comparing to last year is slightly lower, in the upper country and substantially higher in the south. The accumulated rainfall is in the range of 200-1200 mm in the southern area which is the effect from La Nina. If comparing to the average rainfall value, this year’s accumulated rainfall is significantly higher, especially in the northern and southern regions.

Forecast

According to the monthly weather forecast from the Thai Meteorological Department, the weather will be turbulent in the upper country in the first half of the month by the weather will be intermittently stuffy and rainy in some areas. Afterwards, the quantity and dispersion of rainfall will increase to be approximately 40-60 percent of the area, especially in the eastern region. For southern region, rain will increase and the wave height will be 2-3 meters in the west side and 1 meter in The Gulf of Thailand. These are the consequence of the transition from the southeast monsoon that has covered the country to the southwest monsoon that will cover the southern Thailand. In addition, there will be monsoon trough that will periodically lay along the northern region. This year rainy season is expected to arrive in the middle of May. The government has revealed the protection measures for the coming rainy season as follows:

  1. Speculate the flood risk areas and low rainfall areas to establish the countermeasures.
  2. Management of the lowland areas to prepare for any flood situations and also include reserving of water before the end of rainy season.
  3. Revise the management plan of the large-medium dams.
  4. Repair and restore the water drainage systems and telemetering stations.
  5. Clear obstacles and obstructions in the water drainage way.
  6. Dredge canals and remove weeds.
  7. Prepare machines, equipment, staff, protection and prevention plans.
  8. Optimize the water allocation to be consistent with the water budget.
  9. Inspect flood walls/dikes to ensure the condition.
  10. Indicate evacuation areas and conduct the response plan drill (within May).
  11. Establish district government office prior to the situations.
  12. Establish communication with public (before and along the rainy season).
  13. Monitor, assess and manipulate the measures to suit the situations.
For this year precipitation forecast, the weather will be fluctuated as the first half of the year will be influenced by La Nina which has been in effect since September last year, and will later turn over to El Nino in the second half of the year (August till December), according to the director of Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII). This means that this year rainfall will be intermittent during March and April due to tropical storms and the rain will be higher in May and will keep decreasing from June to the rest of the year.

Dam Storage Level (Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam)

The storage level of Sirikit Dam until May 8th is almost the same level as the last two years although the storage level at the beginning of the year is lower. For Bhumibol Dam, the storage level is relatively higher than the two previous years.

Dam Storage Level (Pasak Dam, Kwaenoi Dam)

The storage levels of both Kwaenoi Dam and Pasak Dam are slightly higher than the two previous years although the water budgets are substantially higher.

The Upper Chao Phraya River Flow

The river levels are low in the Ping, Wang, Yom and Nan. For example, the river level is up to 9 meters lower than the river bank at Nakhonsawan province. The river level of the Chao Phraya River above the Chao Phraya Dam is also significantly lower than the bank. Thus, there is no critical situations regarding flood event.

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River

8th May 2022

Note: – Numbers in bracket indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec.

⠀⠀⠀⠀ – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters.

⠀⠀⠀⠀ – Water levels U/S and D/S are in meters.

The Lower Chao Phraya River Flow

               The situation in the Lower Chao Phraya is analogous to the Upper Chao Phraya. The river level is clearly lower than the river bank. There is no notable situation

Water Situation in the Chao Phraya River

8th May 2022

Note: – Numbers in black indicate the flow rate of water in m3/sec. ⠀⠀⠀⠀ – Numbers in bracket the flow rate of water in m3/day. ⠀⠀⠀⠀ – Numbers with underline indicate higher (+) or lower (-) of water level than the river bank in meters.
References
http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php
https://www.thaipost.net/general-news/132557/
https://www.tmd.go.th/monthly_forecast.php
https://www.tnnthailand.com/news/earth/112726/
https://www.matichon.co.th/local/quality-life/newshttps://www.thaiwater.net/water/dam/large
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_up.php?cal2=08052022
http://water.rid.go.th/flood/plan_new/chaophaya/Chao_low.php?cal2=08052022
https://www.pexels.com/photo/body-of-water-under-blue-and-white-skies-1533720
https://www.pexels.com/video/sea-sunset-water-blue-7385122/
https://www.pexels.com/photo/close-up-photo-of-body-of-water-3560168/
https://www.pexels.com/photo/person-soaking-on-body-of-water-1072842/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. is a MS&AD Insurance Group company specialized in risk management survey research and consulting services. For inquiry about consultation and seminar etc. for companies expanding business in Thailand, please feel free to contact the nearest Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance or Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance sales representatives.
MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc.
International Section, Corporate Planning Department
TEL.03-5296-8920
http://www.irric.co.jp
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) is a MS&AD Insurance Group company which was established in Thailand to provide risk management services, such as fire safety, flood risk management, electrical safety and risk consulting services, such as automotive risk assessment, occupational safety and burglary risk survey to our clients in Thailand. For inquiry, please feel free to contact us.
InterRisk Asia (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
175 Sathorn City Tower, South Sathorn Road, Thungmahamek, Sathorn, Bangkok, 10120, Thailand
TEL: +66-(0)-2679-5276
FAX: +66-(0)-2679-5278
http://www.interriskthai.co.th/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The purpose of this report is to provide our customers with the useful information for the occupational safety and health management. There is no intention to criticize any individuals and parties etc.
Copyright 2022 MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc. All Rights Reserved

No tag assigned

2011年タイ大洪水を振り返って(その2) ~タイにおける気候変動と、今後への備え~

March 11, 2022
Makoto Hattori

2011 年タイ大洪水を振り返って(その2)

 ~タイにおける気候変動と、今後への備え~

本稿は三井住友海上タイ支店と共著でバンコク日本人商工会議所・所報 (No.716202112月号)に掲載した記事を基に再構成しています。

1.はじめに

前号(その1)では2011年の大洪水の被害状況等について概説するとともに、お客さまの生々しい体験談をご寄稿いただいた。また、研究結果をもとに、タイにおける気候変動の影響で将来的に洪水が高まる可能性についてご案内した。 ついては本号では、気候変動リスクを具体的に概観し、またリスクマネジメントの観点から、在タイの日系企業が一つの事業体としてどの程度の事前対策を取るべきかを、財務的な観点も踏まえてご説明させていただく。

2.気候変動に関する最近のトピックス

最近は気候変動に関する話題に事欠かない。まずは、メディアに大きく取り上げられた、日本人には明るい話題から。[1]

今年のノーベル物理学賞を米プリンストン大学の眞鍋 淑郎(まなべ しゅくろう)上席研究員が受賞、その研究内容が気候変動ということで大きな話題になった。ノーベル物理学賞は多くが天文物理学、素粒子物理学分野から選ばれるが、気象物理学領域からは初めての受賞である。[1]

気候変動が今や待ったなしの世界的な課題であることへのメッセージとなっている。 また、以下の通り、世界的な枠組みで気候変動に関する論議が進んでいる

気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)が、8月に7年ぶりの第6次報告書を公表した。この中で、温暖化の原因について「人間の影響が大気、海洋及び陸域を温暖化させてきたことには疑う余地がない。[2]と明言した点で大きく注目された。温暖化の原因については異論・反論も存在している中で、IPCCもこれまでは人間の影響について「支配的な原因だった可能性が極めて高い」といった表現にとどめていたが、今回はより踏み込んだ表現となった。

10月31日に開幕された第26回国連気候変動枠組条約締約国会議(COP26)に先立ち、国際エネルギー機関(IEA)は2021年の世界エネルギー見通しに関する報告書 [3]を公表した。その中でIEAは各国の温暖化対策が不十分であり、このままでは1.5シナリオ[4]の達成は困難であるとし、各国に一層の取組みを促した。

既に多くの国・企業が気候変動抑制に取り組んでいるが、決して楽観視できる状況にはなく、パリ協定の目標達成が早速危ぶまれている。その結果、異常気象(タイでは洪水や干ばつ)が増加の一途をたどる未来も十分に想定される。

3.タイで高まる気候変動リスク

IPCCの報告書中、CO2 排出削減などの温暖化対策を今以上に施さなかった場合の(最も温暖化が進む)「RCP8.5」シナリオでは、21世紀後半に2.6 ~ 4.8℃の気温上昇が予測されている(いわゆる4℃シナリオ)。仮にこの最悪シナリオが実現した場合、きわめて破滅的な自然災害による被害が生じるとしている。

4℃シナリオにおける21世紀後半の未来予想図[5]

         ①スーパー台風の頻度、最低気圧、雨量が大幅に増加する

         ②海水面が84m上昇する

         ③世界の多くの地域で水需給がひっ迫する など

最悪のシナリオは21世紀末までの長期に及ぶ予測であるが、実際に世界中で異常気象が報告されており、タイにおいても深刻な洪水・干ばつなどが発生している。次ページの表は気象庁が発表している異常気象について、タイに関する情報を抜粋したものである。タイでは2011年~2020年の10年で7つの異常気象が報告されている。なお、最近の例として、2019から20年にかけてタイで発生した干ばつは過去40年間で最も深刻であったと言われている。[6] タイでは主な気候変動リスクとして洪水にフォーカスされがちであるが、干ばつも経済活動に深刻な影響を与える。農作物の不作・高騰による製糖業などの食品メーカーなどの生産への影響や、冷却用水など大量の水を使用する工場の稼働率低下、また水力発電の出力低下など経済への影響は大きい。またバンコクにおける塩害被害や、大気汚染悪化も広い意味で気候変動リスクと言える。2021年は多雨な年となった。これらが周期的に発生する事象かどうかの評価は難しいが、タイにおける気候変動リスクは、間違いなくより身に迫るものとなっている。

タイで近年発生した異常気象(気象庁 HP より抜粋)

4.気候変動リスクへの備え

以上により、気候変動リスクの高まり(タイにおいてはより深刻な洪水や干ばつ)は理解できるものの、果たしてどの程度の事前対策を取っておくべきか、必ずしも明確な答えがあるわけはない。ついては、大方の企業にも一般的に当てはまるであろう、気候変動リスク(特に洪水)に対処するリスクマネジメントの手順を以下の3つの観点で解説する。

(1) 将来に向けて(特に中長期的に)気候変動リスクがどの程度高まっていくのか具体的なイメージを持っておく。

(2) 気候変動リスクは、自動車事故や火災事故とは異なり、突然発現するものではなく、ある程度予見可能であることも念頭に置く。

(3) やみくもに対策をとるのはコスト負担の観点でも非効率であり、各企業が不慮の損害に対してどの程度まで財務負担力があるかを認識しておく。

(1) 将来に向けた気候変動のイメージ 気候変動リスクを踏まえた、自社拠点の洪水リスク(想定される浸水深などとそれに基づく操業への影響)を想定する。MS & AD インターリスク総研(株)では、気候変動リスク分析ベンチャーの米国Jupitar Intelligence 社と提携して、複数の温暖化シナリオに基づく自然災害のリスク定量評価(洪水であれば浸水深)を提供しているが、こうした情報を活用することで、より具体的な取組みに繋げることができる。

自然災害のリスク定量評価のイメージ

 

再現期間[7] 図1  自然災害のリスク定量評価イメージ(4℃シナリオにおける某拠点の浸水深の経年変化)

図2 自然災害のリスク定量評価イメージ (複数拠点での、再現期間200年の河川洪水による想定被害額の変化)

(2) 気候変動リスクへの予見可能性を踏まえた対応 自動車事故や火災事故はいつ発生するかほぼ予見ができないが、洪水による損害発生は、季節性や、原因となる事象が具体的な損害に発展するまでに、相応の時間がある。損害が発生するまでに、損害発生を防止すること、防止できないにしても損害の軽減が図れることが多い。そのために準備できることを検討しておくことが望ましい。それらの対応は、 ①ソフト面(予めどのような手順を定めておくか) ②ハード面(損害の発生が予見された際にどのような対応をとるか)に分けることができる。 ①ソフト面の対策 チャオプラヤー川水系における洪水は長い時間をかけて浸水が進行し、また水が引くのにも長い時間がかかる。そのため拠点に水が到達するまで時間的余裕があり、近隣河川・水路の水位上昇等、複数の兆候が見られることから、普段よりアクションプラン等を策定しておくことで、有効な対応は十分に可能である。

洪水ソフト面の対策事例

  • 2011 年の大洪水の経験をもとに、河川の水位等から敷地までの洪水到達時間を推定
  • 洪水到達時間から逆算したアクションプランの策定
  • 主要な重量設備を分解のうえ、敷地内の高所に保管(上階、ラックなど)※分解、移設訓練実施
  • 原材料・仕掛品・完成品を安全な他の拠点に移動 ※リソース(輸送など)の事前確保
②ハード面の対策 洪水の被害軽減策は、a. 敷地内への水の浸入を防ぐ、b. 水が浸入した場合の水濡れ被害を可能な限り減らす、の2 点である。

a.敷地内への水の浸入を防ぐ

洪水被害の有効な軽減策は敷地内への水の浸入を防ぐことである。従って防水壁は最も効果的なハード対策である。2011 年の大洪水後、アユタヤの主要な工業団地は防水壁で敷地全域を防護している。

b.浸水した場合の水濡れ被害を可能な限り減らす

上記のような工業団地に入居してない企業が自前で敷地を囲う防水壁を設置するのは費用の面でハードルが高いため、敷地内が浸水する前提で可能な限り被害を軽減することを目指す企業もある。敷地内が浸水したとしても、操業に必要な設備やユーティリティ設備が被害を受けなければ、資産の損害は限定的となり、また事業復旧までの期間を短縮できる。

洪水ハード面の対策事例

  • 重要な製造設備 ・ 検査工程 ・ユーティリティ設備を上階など高い位置に移設
  • 資産を緊急避難させるための保管用ラック ( 想定浸水深よりも高いもの ) の導入
  • 1 階の資産を 2 階に短時間で移すためのクレーンの設置
  • 防水壁の設置 ( 重要設備単位、 プロセス単位、 建物単位、 敷地単位 ) など
(3) 財務負担力の認識 自動車の事故、工場の爆発などの例では、発生する損害の大部分を損害保険から回収することが一般的である。自動車保険での第三者への賠償、工場における事故は大規模な損失につながるため、各企業への財務への影響が非常に大きい。したがって保険への加入は、言い換えれば、事業を継続するために財務状態を維持することが目的となる。 説明のために想定企業(A社)のケースを考える。なおA社の固定費は売上高の増に関わらず一定と仮定する。

A社の損益(単位:百万バーツ)

端的に言って、この想定企業(A社)における「財務負担力」はどの程度と考えられるだろうか。損害が発生し、損害額をそのまま財務上の損失として認識するならば、1億バーツ以上の損害が発生すると、当該企業は赤字に転落することになる。逆に言うと、想定する損害額が1億バーツを大きく下回り、利益計画達成にむけて軽微な影響であれば、「何もしない」という選択肢もある。(これをリスクマネジメントの考えでは「リスクの保有(許容)」という。) 洪水では固定資産の損害に加えて、事業中断による売上・利益への影響という2次的な損害も発生する。事業中断期間が長くなれば、売上高・営業利益は減少する。損益分岐点を下回り赤字になった際に、現預金の取崩しや短期借入等を行うと、経営指標(自己資本比率、ROE、流動比率など)が悪化し、連結親会社の財務諸表へも影響する。十分な被害軽減策を実施できない場合や、費用の問題等で必要な対策を導入できない場合には、保険または代替手段での「リスクの転嫁」が必要になる。

5.まとめ

「2011 年タイ大洪水を振り返って」として、前号、本号の2回にわたり、2011年の大洪水の概要、当時のお客さまの体験談や今後実施すべき対策等について、気候変動の観点も取り入れながら解説した。タイでは2019から20年にかけて深刻な干ばつが発生した一方で、2021年には多雨により洪水が発生するなど、以前よりも気候変動を身に迫るものとして感じている方も多いのではないか。将来顕在化するリスクの大きさが、従来の常識では想定しづらいという昨今の状況下で、いかに実効性のあるリスク管理態勢を構築していくか、多くの経営者の皆様が頭を悩まされていることと思う。しかしながら基本的な考え方はシンプルで、本稿の「4.気候変動リスクへの備え」でご案内した3つの観点が起点となる。合理的かつ客観的に自社の状況を評価し、自社がどの程度のリスクを保有(許容)できるか認識した上で対策を講じることに尽きる。幸いにして2011年の大洪水以降、同規模の洪水は現時点において発生していないが、これは今後も発生しないということを保証するものではない。むしろ気候変動リスクが高まる中で、洪水頻度・強度が高まる可能性も想定される。2011年の大洪水の教訓を形骸化させずに今後に活かし、大洪水が再度発生した場合にも被害を極小化して、持続的な事業継続・成長を実現して行くことが、自社を含めた日系企業のタイにおける存在感を向上させ、タイ経済やひいては日本経済にも貢献するものと考える。
[1] https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20211005/k10013292011000.
[2] Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis – Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
[3] World Energy Outlook 2021(IAEA)
[4] パリ協定での努力目標。「世界的な平均気温上昇を産業革命以前に比べて2℃より十分低く保つとともに、1.5℃に抑える努力を追求する」
[5] IPCC AR5 & IPCC:変化する気候下での海洋・雪氷圏に関するIPCC特別報告書
[6] Thailand tackles worst drought in 40 years(国連機関OCHA /relief web)
[7] 一定の強度をもった自然現象(台風・豪雨・豪雪・地震など)が再び発生するまでの期間(年数)のこと。 例えば「再現期間100年の洪水」とは、100年に一度起きる規模の洪水のことである。

2011年タイ大洪水を振り返って(その1)

March 11, 2022
Makoto Hattori

2011年タイ大洪水を振り返って(その1)

本稿は三井住友海上タイ支店と共著でバンコク日本人商工会議所・所報 (No.715202111月号)に掲載した記事を基に再構成しています。

12011 年タイ大洪水の概況

タイ経済に深刻な影響をもたらし、またタイ進出日系企業へも大きな打撃を与えた2011年のタイ洪水(以降、「大洪水」)から10 年が経過した。大洪水はタイ日本人社会・経済に大きな衝撃を与えた。一方、日本人駐在員には定期異動もあり、総じて日本人の間では大洪水による甚大な苦難の記憶が風化してきているように思われる。そこで本稿では大洪水から10 年が経過したのを機に、大洪水がいかに激しい災害であったかをあらためて振り返り、タイ自然災害の特徴を概観する。 (1) 大洪水の概況 大洪水の被害はタイの広範囲にわたった。全77 県のうち65 県が被災し、死者815 名、約950 万人が被害を受けたとされる。2011 年の5 月と8 月は歴史的に見ても極めて雨量が多い月であったほか、6 月と7 月には台風が襲来するなど(台風4 号:HAIMA、台風8 号:NOCK-TEN)、年間を通じて非常に多雨な年(例年の1.4 倍)であった。 タイでは7月には台風8 号の大雨により、北部地域では既に洪水が発生していたが、8 月以降の多雨によりこれが徐々に拡大・南下し、10 月上旬には中部アユタヤ県のサハラタナナコン工業団地が冠水、その後10 月下旬までにロジャナ工業団地、ハイテク工業団地、バンパイン工業団地ほか主要7工業団地が浸水・冠水した。冠水被害を受けた工場は838 拠点、うち日系企業は450拠点におよんだ。ジェトロ・バンコク事務所が2012 年2 月に実施したアンケート調査によると、回答企業133 社(製造業81 社、非製造業48 社、その他[1]4 社)のうち、71%は直接的または間接的に大洪水の被害を受けている。[2] 大洪水が経済活動にもたらした影響は甚大で、2011 年国内総生産(GDP)成長率は第3四半期までプラスであったにもかかわらず、第4 四半期には洪水の影響でマイナス成長となり、年間成長率は1% と前年度7.8% から大幅に悪化した(非農業分野はマイナス10%に達した[3])。最終的には大洪水による経済損失は1.43 兆バーツに達したと言われる。[4] チャオプラヤー川水系では過去にも多くの洪水が発生しているが、大洪水は同国の歴史上もっとも経済被害の大きい洪水となった。自然現象としての降雨のほか、ダムの貯水量調整も洪水発生の大きな要素と考えられている。

チャオプラヤー川水系における主な洪水[5]

(2) タイの地形と洪水の特徴 多くが半日から数日程度で収まる日本の洪水とは異なり、チャオプラヤー川水系の洪水は数か月かけて南下する。大きな水の塊がじわじわと侵食するイメージとなる。チャオプラヤー川流域は、世界的に見ても極めて稀な低勾配の地勢であり、そのため川の流れが極めて緩やかである。図1はチャオプラヤー川と日本の利根川、信濃川の河床勾配を比較したものであるが、チャオプラヤー川河口付近と、そこから約100km 上流に位置するアユタヤの標高は2 ~ 3m 程度しかない。大洪水の際も流速はわずか1 日数キロ、下流に近い場所では1 キロ未満の日もあったと言われている。このような地形は、バンコクからアユタヤに向かう鉄道に乗ると簡単に見て取れる。

図1:チャオプラヤー川、利根川、信濃川の河床勾配[6]

2.大洪水で罹災された工場の様子

前書きで大洪水の記憶が風化しているのではないかと述べた。ここでは大洪水を当時実際に経験され、現在はタイに駐在されている方から当時の振り返りについてお話しを伺ったので紹介する。

         ①工場全体が浸水した時の様子 当時は日本の本社スタッフであり、工場浸水時の状況を生には体験していないが、アユタヤ工場が浸水する前に、高電圧電源を遮断する手順について工場担当者から電話照会を受けた。工場の電源遮断は通常5年に一度しか実施しないため、工場担当者には初めての経験であり、浸水が日々迫るなか、焦り、緊迫した様子が伝わってきた。後日、工場は約2m浸水、ボートで工場の中に入り工場の天井付近をボートで進んでいくのをビデオで見て、非常に不思議な気持ちになった。

         ②工場内部の罹災状況、当時の心境 水が引いた約2週間後の12月に現地工場へ入った。1階設備は泥水に浸り、まずは従業員や協力会社による掃除作業が始まった。従業員は自分の家も被災して大変な状況であるにも関わらず、工場の早期復旧に尽力してくれ、使命感に涙が出る思いだった。一度浸水した設備が正常稼働するか、判断は容易ではなく、設備図面自体も浸水し見ることができず、設備復旧の重要な手掛かりが無く愕然とした。一方顧客への製品供給が滞ることも許されないため、早期に設備復旧計画を立てるため、タイで越年することとした。

         ③復旧作業で大変だった事 現場調査し図面を再作成したり、機器の納期を確認したり膨大な作業があったが、最も緊迫した状況は輸入手続きだった。非常に多くの書類を用意する必要があり、ホテルで夜中にパソコンを打つ日々が続いた。疲れがピークに達していた時はキーボードを打ちながらそのまま寝ていた日もあった。パソコンを打ちながら寝てしまったのは後にも先にもあの時だけだった。

寄港地が急遽変更になったり、必ずしも通関は思うようにいかず、スケジュールに合わせるためには臨機応変に対処する必要があった。皆が一日も早く復旧させたいというベクトルが一致していたので、バックアップ策も考え、常に先回りして確認するなど、良いチームワークで苦難を乗り越えた。

          ④復旧体制(本社指示、他拠点からの応援など) 工場の復旧には多くの応援が必要で、現場調査、機器整備、工事、検収ごとに日本の本社へ具体的な人材の応援を依頼したが、時には難色を示され、親しい先輩に泣きついて無理を言ったこともあった。「あの時の君は電話越しでもテンションが違って、アドレナリンが出まくっていて圧倒された」と言われた。当時はまだ多数の出張者を受け入れることができたが、このコロナ禍ではそれもできないため、現地だけの対応となることを考えると恐ろしい。

保険への加入は、逸失利益の補償のほか、多くの応援者を呼ぶうえでも備えとなった。社内購買では価格妥当性検証が義務付けされているが、保険金でバックアップできる安心感があり、顧客への供給責任、復旧最優先の精神で対応できた。

多くの従業員等の尽力で、計画より若干前倒しで、一部工程を3月に再開することが出来た。 最初の製品が出てきたときは仲間と手を取り合い涙が出た。

貴重な体験談を寄稿いただきましたご厚意に、この場をお借りし感謝申し上げたい。

3.大洪水の被害への保険金お支払い対応

前述の体験談で保険対応について言及いただいたが、当時の三井住友海上をはじめとする損害保険会社における保険金のお支払対応状況についても触れさせていただきたい。 2011 年10 月初旬に「バンコク郊外北部のサハラタナナコン工業団地が浸水」との一報を受けた直後、三井住友海上では洪水対策室を設置、お客さまからの罹災のご連絡に備えた。その時点では洪水の全容は明らかではなかったが、広範囲に影響が拡大する極めて異常な洪水であるとの認識を強めていた。間もなく、工業団地内にあるお客さまの工場で2m を超える泥水に浸る事態となったが、実際の調査にはなかなか着手できず、調査要員の出張支援、損害復旧会社の手配など資源確保を優先した。 洪水はさらに容赦なく南下しながら工業団地を飲み込んでいく。「次のエリアで止まるだろう、いや止まらない。でも次のエリアで止まるだろう、いや、止まってくれ」と、異様な緊張感の中でお客さまと日々認識共有させていただいた。本格的な調査は10 月下旬にようやく開始できた。 罹災が判明していないお客さまも含めて、罹災時の初動対応等をまとめた説明文書をご案内した。事故対応に関する説明会も開催した。11 月に入り罹災されたお客さまからの具体的な保険金のご請求をいただいたが、浸水のため書類がどうしても限られ、個々の判断に時間を要しご迷惑をお掛けしたケースも発生した。 一般に、日本における地震や台風等の災害では、多くの場合「災害の発生」から「被害の確定」まで短期間であり速やかに調査できるが、大洪水では約1 か月にわたって被害が徐々に拡大、その間調査を開始できない状況でお客さまからのご照会やご要望に対して対応する必要があった。書類がすべて整わずとも、当面の2011 年12 月決算期に合わせて、損害調査開始から約2 か月の間、一部前払いを含め、可能な限り早期の保険金お支払い実現に総力挙げて対応した。 後日発表された世界銀行の推計によると、タイ全体の被害総額は約3 兆5000 億円。うち工業団地の被害額は約1 兆7000 億円。日系損害保険会社がお支払いした保険金は約9000 億円。自然災害による経済損失額の大きさでは、当時では史上4 番目の規模となる大災害であった。

4.タイにおける気象変動の概況

幸いなことに大洪水以降、同規模の洪水は今のところ発生していない。しかしながら、前述の通りチャオプラヤー川水系ではこれまで幾度なく洪水が発生してきたという歴史的事実があり、今後も発生する可能性が高いと考え対策を講じておく必要がある。また、洪水のみならず、異常気象など温暖化の影響による自然災害を広く考慮することが重要となる。 2021 年8 月、気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)による7 年ぶりの第6 次報告書が発表された。この中で特に注目すべきポイントの一つは、人間の活動が温暖化に与える影響について「疑う余地がない」と初めて断定したことである。温暖化については人間の活動以外にも要因があるとする説もあり、IPCC もこれまでの報告書では「人間活動が温暖化に影響を与えている可能性が非常に高い」という言い回しで断言は避けていた事を考えると大きく踏み込む内容となった。世界規模での更なる温暖化対策の進展が期待される。 では実際に、タイにおいて洪水リスクは高まっているのか。また、今後さらに高まっていくのか。東京大学・芝浦工業大学とMS&AD インターリスク総研・MS&AD インシュアランス グループ ホールディングスとの共同研究「グローバルな洪水リスク情報の効果的な活用方法に関する研究」では、2000 ~ 2013 年の時点で洪水の発生確率はこれまでの人為的な地球温暖化の効果がない場合と比較して、2 倍以上となっている可能性を指摘している(図2参照)。[7] また同研究チームが作成した、「気候変動による洪水頻度変化予測マップ」[8] によると、今後、何らかの温暖化対策を講じなかった場合[9]、チャオプラヤー川下流域では20 世紀後半(1971 ~ 2000 年)には100 年に1 度の確率で生じていた洪水が、21 世紀後半(2071 ~2100 年)には約16 年で1 度の確率で発生すると推定されている。温暖化の加速により発生頻度が大幅に高まる結果になっている。

図2:2010-2013年の期間に、地球温暖化によって洪水の生じやすさが増加した流域(凡例の0以上)と減少した流域 (凡例の0未満)の分布 Hirabayashi et al., 2021b

5.まとめ

タイに進出する日系企業数は2011 年の洪水以降も増え続けており、バンコク日本人商工会議所における2020 年の会員数は2011 年当時から約33% 増の1763 社となっている。また進出企業はタイ国内におけるサプライチェーン強化の観点から原材料・部品などの現地調達率を引き上げる流れもある9。資産はより集積し、サプライチェーンの脆弱性は高まっていることから、2011 年と同等以上の洪水が発生した場合には、当時と比べてより大きな被害、特にサプライチェーン寸断による間接損害が拡大する可能性は否めない。 また、バンコク周辺ではかつて洪水の際の遊水地や海への放水路として活用されていた土地においても急速な開発(工業化・宅地化)が進んだことで洪水対策機能が低下している可能性があり、そうした場所には資産が集積するため、洪水リスクはさらに高まる。大洪水から10 年が経過し、多くの企業の洪水に対する意識は次第に低くなっているように感じられる。万全の洪水対策を講じ、定期的に教育訓練を行っている企業もあるが、多くの企業は大洪水直後に実施していた取組みが形骸化しているのではないか。 大洪水以降、同規模の洪水は今のところ再発していないが、前述の通り大洪水に匹敵する規模の洪水は今後も発生する可能性がある。在タイ企業はこのようなタイの洪水リスクを取り巻く環境をあらためて認識したうえで、備えることが重要である。次号では、気候変動への備えを含めて、企業に求められる対策をご紹介する。
[1] その他:アンケートの回答に企業名が不記載であったため製造業・非製造業の区別が不明の企業
[2] 「 タイ大洪水」に関する被災企業アンケート調査結果の公表について(ジェトロ・バンコク事務所)
[3] IMF:https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/journals/002/2012/124/article-A001-en.xml THAI FLOOD 2011
[4] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/677841468335414861/pdf/698220WP0v10P106011020120Box370022B.pdf
[5] https://www.voicetv.co.th/read/20481 ほか
[6] 地理情報システムより海抜を確認の上、当社にて編集
[7] Hirabayashi, Y., Tanoue, M., Sasaki, O. et al. Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections. Sci Rep 11, 3740 (2021)
[8] Hirabayashi, Y., Tanoue, M., Sasaki, O. et al. Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections. Sci Rep 11, 3740 (2021)
[9] 気候変動が最も進行するSSP5-RCP8.5 シナリオの結果(IPCC 第5 次評価報告書で用いられているRCP( 代表濃度経路) シナリオ)に基づく