What are the major business risk trends for 2026?
In our previous articles, we introduced key business and organizational risks, outlining the types of risks organizations face and how they can be managed. In this article, we bring readers an update on business risk trends for 2026, highlighting the risks organizations may encounter, so that readers can revisit their organizational risk landscape and better prepare and plan for the future.
Business Risk Trend in 2026
According to the BCI Horizon Scan Report 2025, which compiles insights from experts across all sectors worldwide, five major business disruption risks are expected to be closely monitored in 2026, as outlined below.
Cyber Attacks
Survey findings show that cyberattacks remain the number one organizational risk in 2026. This is driven by the continued increase in both the frequency and sophistication of attacks, particularly the use of AI to create more advanced and threats that are harder to detect. As a result, even organizations with strong security controls face growing challenges in responding quickly and effectively.
This risk is further amplified by its close links to supply chains and critical infrastructure, potentially causing disruption and damage to reputation. For these reasons, organizations must prioritize strengthening resilience and implementing robust response and recovery plans, such as Business Continuity Planning (BCP). Readers can learn more about cyber security here.
Extreme Weather Events
This remains one of the key risks in 2026, driven by the escalating impacts of climate change. Extreme weather events such as storms, flooding, and droughts continue to increase the risk of business disruption, affecting critical infrastructure, production capacity, and global supply chains. A clear example this year was the major flooding in southern Thailand in November, which caused widespread damage to households and businesses. The increasing frequency and severity of such events are heightening business uncertainty and driving up recovery costs. As a result, organizations must place greater emphasis on environmental risk assessment and adopt flexible, adaptive response planning to safeguard business continuity.
IT and Telecom Outage
IT system and telecommunications network disruptions are expected to remain one of the key risks in 2026, as organizations increasingly rely on digital platforms and real-time communications. Even a few hours of service downtime can immediately and severely impact operational performance and business continuity. Key risk drivers include the growing complexity of digital infrastructure, cyber attacks, and increased dependence on third-party service providers.
Business Interruption from Data Breaches
Data breach risk continues to rank among the top risk categories, driven by the exponential growth in the volume of data that organizations store and exchange as a result of digital working models and widespread cloud adoption. This expansion significantly increases the attack surface and security vulnerabilities. At the same time, attack techniques and data theft methods are becoming more sophisticated particularly with the use of artificial intelligence to penetrate systems or develop malware capable of evading detection.
The impact of data breaches extends beyond financial loss; it also undermines customer trust and damages organizational reputation. As a result, organizations must place strong emphasis on continuous data protection, monitoring, and security controls.
Third party and Critical Infrastructure
Disruptions affecting third‑party service providers and critical infrastructure have emerged as another major risk category in 2026, driven by the increasing reliance of organizations worldwide on external providers across technology services, supply chains, and energy systems. When such disruptions occur, they can trigger cascading effects that significantly impact overall business operations.
Geopolitical uncertainty and armed conflicts further heighten this risk, as they increase the likelihood of attacks on or failures of critical infrastructure. These factors underscore the importance for organizations to recognize dependency‑related risks and to implement robust business continuity and resilience planning to mitigate potential impacts.
How Organizations Can Analyze These Risk Trends Internally?
After reviewing the overall risk landscape for 2026, many readers may be wondering: how can organizations analyze business risk trends on their own? The answer lies in establishing a Long‑Term Trend Analysis approach, supported by various tools to help identify and assess risks. These tools include the following:
Internal Risk Assessment
This is a process in which organizations use internal data such as incident history, audit findings, BCP/DRP test results, and employee feedback to analyze which risks are actively affecting business operations. According to the BCI report, this is the most widely used tool among organizations (87.2%), as it helps identify recurring issues such as safety incidents, IT system outages, or problems caused by third‑party service providers before they escalate into major crises.
External Reports & Industry Insight
This tool enables organizations to look beyond their own walls to understand emerging risk trends at both the industry and global levels. The BCI report indicates that more than 75.2% of organizations use this type of external information for trend analysis, as it helps identify threats that may not yet have affected their own operations but are already impacting others such as cyber attacks, extreme weather events, regulatory changes, or regional supply chain disruptions.
Industry Events & Conferences
Industry‑related seminars and events provide valuable opportunities for professionals to exchange firsthand experiences from recent incidents, learn lessons from organizations that have dealt with real disruptions, and gain insights from industry experts and consultants. Participating in these events therefore serves as a “shortcut” for risk management teams to identify emerging trends early before they begin to impact their own organizations.
Social Media Monitoring
Monitoring news, emerging risk signals, and early warnings from social media platforms such as X, Facebook, LinkedIn, and others can support an organization’s horizon scanning efforts. Social media has become a critical tool for identifying risk signals faster than traditional sources, as many incidents often emerged on social platforms before they become official news or formal announcements. Examples include early notifications of cloud service outages, large‑scale customer complaints, localized disaster alerts, or growing public dissatisfaction that may escalate into a reputational risk for the organization.
Risk Assessment Software
Risk assessment software refers to software or systems that help organizations systematically assess, prioritize, and monitor risks. These platforms consolidate data from multiple sources into a single environment such as incident data, audit results, compliance requirements, and threat intelligence enabling more structured risk analysis and reducing reliance on manual processes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What Risks Should Organizations Scan for, and Where Should the Scope Begin?
This is often one of the first questions organizations ask, as many are unsure which risks should be included when conducting Horizon Scanning. However, each organization should begin by asking and answering the following three key questions:
- Types of risks, such as cyberattacks, geopolitical risks, supply chain risks, technology risks, and other relevant risk categories.
- The scope of risks whether it should cover only risks that have previously occurred within the organization, or also include global external risk trends.
- The time horizon whether the focus should be on the short term (the next 12 months) or extend beyond that.
What Data Should Be Used, and Where Can It Be Sourced?
Once organizations begin scanning for risks, a common question that arises is, “Do we have enough data?” Key questions that organizations should be able to answer include the following:
- Which internal and external data sources should be used? for example, incident logs, audit results, external reports, plan testing outcomes, and similar information?
- What tools are required for example, risk assessment software and social media monitoring?
- reliability of data sources
How can organizations determine which risks matter most?
This question typically arises after risks and their scope have been defined. Before prioritizing risks, organizations should first consider the following key questions:
- Risk analysis techniques, such as qualitative and quantitative risk assessments
- Should risks be prioritized based on frequency, severity, or a combination of both?
Conduct business risk management with InterRisk Asia
This article has highlighted key business risk trends, identifying which types of risks are expected to rank among the most significant in 2026. It has also introduced a range of tools that organizations can use to analyze business risk trends, including internal and external risk assessments, insights from industry reports, and the use of risk assessment software to support structured risk evaluation.
If your organization is experiencing challenges in business risk assessment or business continuity planning, InterRisk Asia offers a free initial consultation to help you get started.
InterRisk Asia is a leading business continuity consulting firm in Thailand, operates under the MS&AD Group from Japan.
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